As tariffs reshape the global coffee trade, Brazil tightens its grip on the market — and its rivals are left scrambling.
By Alexander Barrett, seeking a Research Fellowship at Stanford University, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, or Harvard University
In the great drama of global trade, tariffs are the new plot twists. And in 2025, few commodities are feeling the impact more sharply — or more bitterly — than coffee.
After the latest volley of U.S. tariffs took effect this April, Brazil, already the world’s titan of green coffee, didn’t just survive the shake-up. It flourished. The country now finds itself not merely better off, but dominant, striding across the global coffee stage like a sun-drenched colossus from Minas Gerais — clutching a portafilter in one hand and a WTO handbook in the other.
At first glance, the numbers are almost too good to be true. Last year, Brazil exported roughly 45.35 million 60-kilogram bags of green coffee, dwarfing its nearest rival, Vietnam, which shipped about 27.5 million [1]. Colombia, another powerhouse, mustered just under 13 million — a respectable showing, but in this company, about as intimidating as a decaf espresso.
Then came April 5, 2025. The U.S. government, eager to correct perceived trade imbalances, rolled out a sweeping tariff plan. The new structure looks like this:
At first glance, Mexico might appear to benefit more, with zero tariffs on green coffee under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) [3]. However, a deeper analysis reveals that Brazil’s strategic advantages far outweigh the nominal tariff differential.
To call the impact seismic would be to understate it. A better metaphor might be volcanic — and Brazil, it turns out, is the only one who remembered to pack a surfboard.
The Fine Print of Victory
It’s tempting to assume that zero tariffs mean winning. And yes, technically, Mexico’s green coffee enters the U.S. market tariff-free.
But the coffee trade, like coffee itself, is more complex once you get past the surface. Mexico’s green coffee exports hover around a modest four million bags — less than a tenth of Brazil’s volume. More importantly, Mexico’s coffee sector is a patchwork of smallholder farms, producing beautiful but pricey beans, often destined for boutique roasters, third-wave cafés, and people who use the word “terroir” unironically [4].
Brazil, by contrast, has scale. Miles of mechanized plantations, super-efficient supply chains, and some of the lowest production costs on Earth [5]. Even when you tack on a 10% tariff, Brazilian coffee typically still lands in U.S. ports $0.13 to $0.15 cheaper per pound than Mexican coffee [6].
Multiply that cost difference by a container — say, 38,000 pounds of beans — and it adds up to a savings of roughly $5,130 per shipment. For massive roasters grinding through hundreds of containers a year, it’s the kind of margin that keeps shareholders awake at night — and Brazilian exporters ordering another round of caipirinhas.
Vietnam’s Woes, Brazil’s Delight
If Mexico loses by being small, Vietnam loses by being unlucky. Before the tariff hammer fell, Vietnam was the world’s second-largest coffee producer, a robusta juggernaut whose low-cost beans powered everything from instant coffee to the kind of breakroom sludge that has fueled countless Monday mornings.
Now, facing a 46% tariff, Vietnamese coffee is effectively priced out of the U.S. market [2]. Importers and roasters, already squeezed by record-high Arabica prices after Brazil’s droughts [7], are unlikely to absorb the cost. Instead, they’ll look elsewhere.
And “elsewhere,” increasingly, means Brazil.
Brazil, after all, produces both Arabica and Robusta, in staggering quantities. It has the infrastructure to ship coffee across the hemisphere with clockwork regularity. It has the ability to flex — pivoting from bulk commodity to specialty-grade lots without missing a beat. And now, crucially, it has the clearest tariff advantage over its biggest rival.
In the cruel, caffeinated mathematics of 2025, Brazil simply adds up better.
The Taste of a New Reality
For American coffee drinkers, the first hint of this shift might come in the form of rising prices at their local supermarket. Supply disruptions from Vietnam, coupled with tight inventories, could drive retail coffee prices even higher. Which means that soon, your “medium roast” may require a medium-sized loan.
But behind the scenes, the deeper change is about who controls the supply. Brazil’s victory isn’t just about beans. It’s about systems — about scale, cost, and the sheer industrial might of a country that decided long ago to take coffee seriously.
Of course, boutique roasters will still find ways to tell stories about single-origin lots from Chiapas or heirloom varietals from Sidamo. And they should. Coffee, at its best, has always been about romance as much as commerce.
But for the vast, caffeinated majority of Americans reaching for their second, third, or fourth cup, the invisible hand behind the brew will, more often than not, be Brazilian — steady, relentless, and perhaps just a little smug.
About the Author: Alexander Barrett is a specialist in international trade, supply chain technology, and sustainable agricultural markets. He is the founder of iFinca and Verida, where he builds digital infrastructure to connect coffee producers to global markets. His work focuses on how tariffs, transparency, and innovation are reshaping global commodity trade.
Footnotes
【1】 USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, Coffee: World Markets and Trade Report, December 2024. 【2】 Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), Announcement on Tariffs for Green Coffee and Agricultural Products, April 5, 2025. 【3】 USTR, USMCA Trade Provisions, 2025. 【4】 Author’s analysis based on USDA data and Mexican agricultural reports, 2025. 【5】 International Coffee Organization, Annual Coffee Market Report, 2024. 【6】 Author’s trade analysis based on CIF pricing models, 2025. 【7】 International Coffee Organization, Coffee Price Report, 2024.
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