Brazil’s coffee crop for the 2026/27 season, with harvesting expected next year, could reach an all-time record of 70.7 million 60kg bags. This projection, released on November 13th by financial services company StoneX, represents a robust 13.5% increase compared to the previous cycle.
This volume, mainly driven by a recovery in Arabica coffee productivity, could bring significant relief to the tight global coffee market. If the estimate is confirmed, the figure will surpass the previous historical mark recorded in the 2020/21 cycle, when the country harvested 67.6 million bags, the largest volume recorded to date considering both Arabica and Conilon/Robusta species.
Market Relief, But Climate is a Key Factor
Fernando Maximiliano, a StoneX expert, highlighted the projection’s significance in an interview with Reuters. “According to our historical series, if confirmed, it’s a record. Of course, this depends on the weather; any problem could impact production,” he stated. He explained that although several crucial stages of the crop are yet to come, the current scenario points to a significant improvement in supply.
The 2026 harvest is considered vital for the recomposition of global stocks, which have been drastically reduced after consecutive deficits in the world balance between 2021 and 2024. According to the consultancy, this period consumed over 22 million bags from global stocks.
“This means relief for the market. After years of serious supply problems, the 2026 crop could start to replenish stocks,” added Maximiliano, who chose not to comment on export projections.
Potential Limited by Climate Conditions
Despite the record expectation, StoneX notes that the projected volume is still below the maximum potential that Brazilian crops could achieve under ideal climatic conditions.
The report indicates that recent problems during the flowering phase, such as delayed and irregular rains, resulted in uneven “pegamento” (fruit set), limiting the full outcome of the harvest and preventing an even more expressive result.
As a sign that production could be higher, the consultancy recalls that in the 2020/21 crop, Brazil harvested more Arabica coffee (47.6 million bags) than projected for 2026/27.
Coffee Crop Performance Breakdown
StoneX’s detailed analysis for the 2026/27 crop shows strong growth in Arabica coffee production, estimated at 47.2 million bags. This figure represents an annual increase of 29.3%.
On the other hand, Conilon (Robusta) production, which hit a record in the 2025/26 cycle, is expected to register an 8.9% year-on-year decrease. The projection for this variety is 23.5 million bags.
Mixed Scenario in Producing States
Crop performance varies significantly among the country’s main producing regions:
- Minas Gerais and São Paulo (Arabica): In Minas Gerais, the main Arabica-producing state, growth is expected in all regions. Southern Minas, the largest coffee region in the country, should see an increase of 21.1%, reaching 17.2 million bags. In São Paulo, ranking second, the advance is even more expressive, projected at 75.6%, driven by the return of “zero crop” (post-pruning) areas and new plantings. However, both regions face concerns about flower abortion and dry weather.
- Rondônia (Amazonian Robusta): The state is expected to see a strong recovery in Robusta production, with growth of 32%, reaching 3.3 million bags. The consultancy cites the expansion of cultivated areas, renewal of coffee plantations, and favorable climatic conditions during flowering as factors for the increase.
- Espírito Santo (Conilon): Conversely, Espírito Santo, the largest Conilon producer, is expected to see a 15% drop, closing with 16.3 million bags. According to the report, “the decline is attributed to structural crop management, physiological wear of the plants, and limited flower setting due to cold winds and rains during the critical period.”
Should StoneX’s projections be confirmed, Brazil is expected to reinforce its crucial role as the main global coffee supplier, bringing much-needed relief to world stocks after years of restricted supply.
Font: Gazeta da Amazônia (containing InfoMoney information)